Sensitivity of 21st-century projected ocean new production changes to idealized biogeochemical model structure

Abstract. While there is agreement that global warming over the 21st century likely to influence biological pump, Earth system models (ESMs) display significant divergence in their projections of future new production. This paper quantifies and interprets sensitivity projected changes production an idealized ocean biogeochemistry model. The model includes two tracers explicitly represent nutrient transport, light- nutrient-limited uptake by ecosystem (new production), export via sinking organic particles. Globally, declines with due reduced surface availability, as expected. However, magnitude, seasonality, underlying dynamics are sensitive light dependencies uptake, which we summarize terms a single timescale linear combination partial derivatives respect nutrients. Although relationships nonlinear, this correlated several measures biogeochemical function: shorter timescales associated greater annual higher utilization. Shorter also warmer climate nutrients than light. Future work needed characterize more complex similar generalities examine change implications.